Backcountry Decisionmaking, the War in Iraq, and the Importance of a Questioning Attitude

With the almost complete lack of snow in Southern California, I spent last weekend getting caught up on reading rather than going on a previously planned ski trip to Sequoia National Park. I finished reading "State of Denial" by Bob Woodward and reviewing the Avalanche Safety Reader given out at the Avy Level 1 course I took last March. At first, I thought that they had nothing in common. It wasn't until Sunday afternoon when I was reading an article in the Economist, "Economics Focus: What the World Bank Knows", which was an assessment of the quality of research put out by the bank, that I realized what the link was. The point in the article that really struck me was that the Bank's leadership was consistently using untested research as gospel that their policies worked. They were looking for their in-house research to justify what they already wanted to do (prove that their aid programs and recommended reform programs actually worked) without criticizing the quality of the data or looking to see if it could also be used to show that their policies didn't work. This problem of trying to support the desired outcome is a problem that affects decisions everywhere from the backcountry to the White House to our everyday lives. I can guarantee you that none of us are immune to this.

In addition to putting out lots of information about how the environment (weather and terrain) affects avalanche safety, one of the big points that S. P. Parker, our instructor at the avy clinic, put out was the need to be aware of what is going on in our minds while making the decision about whether or not an area is safe. He brought up the fact that there's a catch-22 that exists in that the terrain we most want to ski often has the highest avalanche danger. The steep powder field that looks so nice also has a 35 degree pitch and has been having wind deposit snow on it for the last 10 hours. These are all major danger factors. But S.P. pointed out that all too often very experienced people ignore these danger factors and look for reasons why they should ski the terrain. Even if they do recognize that the danger factors do exist, they neglect to give them the proper consideration. Some of the messages that go on inside the brain of our friend Homo Powdericus are:
1) I've just spent 3 hours skinning up this mountain. There's no way I'm leaving without good turns.
2) It's been 1 month since I've gotten half decent powder. I don't care what signs I'm seeing. I need freshies.
3) It looks soooooo gooooood!!! I've never gotten hurt before. So I'll be fine this time.
4) Everyone seems to think its safe...so it must be.

These are all rationalizations that have gone through my head at some point to justify skiing a potentially dangerous slope to get some good turns. In retrospect, I recognize that they weren't very smart. They encouraged me to ignore my gut and not fully consider the downside to the decision.

A related issue that S.P. brought up is the tendency for groups to delegate decision making to those with the most experience. What this means is that a group of people will often just follow the most experienced person. He brought up numerous case studies where many of the lesser experienced people did notice danger factors and were concerned about them. But they neglected to speak up because they had decided to follow the person with the most experience. They figured that he noticed the danger factor and had given it the proper attention.

For those of you who haven't read it, I highly recommend reading "State of Denial". It's Bob Woodward's narrative and analysis of the decision making process behind going to war in Iraq and our subsequent strategy for fighting the insurgency. It was largely based on interviews Woodward conducted with key policy makers within the Bush administration. Whatever your politics are, the book is interesting in its lessons for decision making. Woodward argues that like our friend, homo powdericus, key members of the Bush administration did not maintain a questioning attitude. They both failed to question the validity of the evidence justifying their action (WMD intelligence that was 5-10 years old). Additionally, he argues that they failed to adequately consider the downside (not finding WMD, Iraqi infrastructure being in poor condition, the population becoming hostile and the possibility of Shia vs. Sunni fighting) of their decision. Within the government, there were numerous high ranking officials/military officers who did have serious doubts on all of these issues and failed to speak up just like the backcountry skiers who delegated decision making authority to the person with the most experience.

I do not intend this to be open up a discussion about the merits of the war in Iraq. THIS BLOG IS NOT MEANT TO BE POLITICAL! What I do want to show is that these decision making errors do take place and can result in serious consequences.

Within the submarine force, one of the guiding philosophies is to maintain a questioning attitude. What this means is to always question the information being presented to you (where did it come from, does it make sense when seen against current indications/past history, could it be wrong, etc), to use conservative assumptions (not politically conservative, but try to avoid “la la” land assumptions) and to always look at both the pros and cons. A key part of this philosophy is that it’s every crew members’ responsibility to speak up if they have a concern. What this means is that we expect the most junior sailor to speak up if they have a concern. While I at times found this frustrating while I was serving on board a submarine (USS Toledo), it helped to keep us safe while we were operating hundreds of feet underwater. Just like on the submarine, a questioning attitude will help to improve our decision making and to keep us safe, whether it’s at work or at the top of a mountain in the backcountry. I'm not saying it’s easy to maintain. But at the very least we should be aware of it.

Alta/Snowbird Trip Report

As much as I was complaining about my dad holding me back, I have to give him credit for hanging with me and skiing better as the week went on. Although it hadn't affected him the last two years, maybe his difficulties the first two days were due to the jet lag (flew here from Beijing, China) and altitude. I'm not saying that he transformed himself into an amazing skier beginning on day 3, but he skied much better the last 4 days.
On Saturday, we were greeted with a light snowfall throughout the day. But more importantly, the winds picked up leading to blowing snow. By the early afternoon, this resulted in near white out conditions. Normally, I'd look to see where the snow was depositing. But the wind was fluctuating too much...one minute from one direction, the next minute from another direction. As the afternoon went on, the winds only grew stronger. Like most of the skiers still on the mountain, we spent most of the afternoon skiing the trees off of the Wildcat lift when the top chairs closed. This was perfectly fine with me as the steep chutes through the trees off of the Wildcat lift are some of my favorite slopes at Alta. Unfortunately, by 3:15, the winds had forced the remaining lifts to close. Forcing us to quit early wasn't the biggest consequence of the high winds. More important for my sore back, they closed down the Peruvian's hot tub. So instead of soaking in the hot tub, we spent the rest of the afternoon in the Peruvian's bar. It's a classic ski bar...lots of great local characters, a big fire, ancient couches and lots of dead animals hanging on the walls. If you're up at Alta, I highly recommend stopping there for a drink after skiing. At the very least, it definitely beats sitting in traffic trying to fight your way out of the canyon. If you're there on Sundays, they have great live music.
One of the great things about the Peruvian is that you eat dinner with different people each night. On Saturday night, we ate dinner with Paul, Dick, and Elaine. When I got back from the buffet, I found that dad had enlisted them in his efforts to convince me to put off looking for a real job after I get out of the navy (this August) to allow me to spend a winter as a ski bum. I have to admit that doing that is a once in a lifetime opportunity that I will probably never have again. Sooner or later, I'll get married and start a new career. Once I do that, it would be next to impossible to do something like ski bumming. Not sure if that's what I want to do, but it does sound tempting. I never imagined that it would be my own dad who would be the one pushing me to do something like that.
By the time we woke up on Sunday, the winds (max recorded wind speed at top of Mt Baldy 107 mph) had died down. We found a mountain completely reshaped from the day before...with boot deep powder in many spots. The hike out to Baldy Shoulder was definitely worth it. But the highlight was getting some of the first tracks on Stonecrusher and Lone Pine. What was surprising was that we didn't even hit it in any of our first runs. It was probably an hour into the day. The most difficult part was getting there...the traverse into Stonecrusher was very rocky. But once you were in and made your way over to the right side of the slope, it was wonderful...boot deep and a nice steep long pitch. Despite being wary of where I was taking him, even dad enjoyed the run. Shortly after lunch, dad finally cried uncle and I was left to ski by myself. I expected to be really energized now that I could ski whatever I wanted. But by that time, most of the good snow was skied off and a lot of the mountain was wind packed crud. I got bored and was back at the hotel by 3...I guess that I've become a real snow snob...incredibly spoiled last 2 years getting 60" and 42"over 6 and 5 days respectively.
We spent Monday and Tuesday skiing down the road at Snowbird. Although I love Alta for all of its pureness, I must admit that Snowbird is growing on me more and more each time I go there. Monday and Tuesday were two of the best days I had all week. On Monday, the top of the mountain was covered in a thick fog. So we spent the morning skiing on the right side of the mountain off of the Gad 2 chairlift. It was everything I remembered from the year before...great steep, bumpy chutes through the trees. Due to all of the trees and its aspect to the sun, it also seems to avoid a lot of the freeze/thaw cycle that the rest of the mountain goes through. The snow is therefore seemingly better than just about anywhere...what looks like crud is actually very skiable. Besides that, they had some great groomers where we got some first tracks on perfectly groomed corduroy. I must be getting old because I find laying down GS turns to be simply wonderful...albeit a distance second to great powder.

The blooper for the day happened just after lunch. We decided to take the Little Cloud lift up to the top of the mountain. Unfortunately, we didn't see the lift station until just before we reached it. In one of my more graceful moments, my poles got stuck in the chair (sitting on top of the them) and I had to straddle my way over them to get off....got off on two feet, but only pole made it off...the other snapped and fell off a little ways back down the mountain. This ended up being a blessing in disguise. Skiing without poles was a great drill to force me to ski better....never thought it was possible to ski steep bumpy chutes through the trees, but it was actually a lot of fun. Towards the end of the day, we we were able to go through Snowbird's new tunnel, which connects the Peruvian Gulch with the Mineral Basin area.

On Tuesday, we were greeted with warm weather (~40F), blue skies, and soft snow. We made the right decision and decided to spend the morning in Mineral Basin. I highly recommend this as it gets lots of sun in the morning. The snow was particular good in the Bookends area. The second day we bought the "lifts only" ticket. Unless you plan on skiing a lot off the main ridge (great double diamond terrain if there's more snow), a chair only ticket will give you access to plenty of great terrain for $10 less.

Unfortunately, all good things must come to and end and at 3:30 we took the chairlift from Mineral Basin to Alta for our last run of the day. We had enough time at the hotel to spend half an hour in the hot tub and grab a few drinks at the bar before the van picked us up to take us down to valley. For all of you who plan on staying in the canyon and flying out in the morning, my recommendation is to spend your last night in Salt Lake. If a storm hits, its very likely that the Canyon could be closed the night/morning before your flight. (Note: This happened to me 2 years ago)

No Friends on a Powder Day?

...or so goes the old adage. I am two days into the annual ski trip to Alta that I take with my dad each year. Although Alta is pretty bare by their standards (lots of uncovered rocks/stumps that you normally wouldn't see this time of year), we were greeted with 10" of new snow this morning. At breakfast, everyone was talking about what they'd hit first and what their general strategy was to get the most first tracks possible. By the time we got to the lifts (20 minutes before opening), the lines were already huge. The locals were foaming at the mouth to get their first powder in almost two weeks. So I should have been pretty excited, right?

Actually, I felt really torn and it only got worse as the morning went on. On the one hand, I too really wanted to get some of the beautiful pow pow. But on the other hand, I was on vacation with my dad. The vacation is as much about spending time with him as it is about the skiing. The only problem is that he's 57 years old, not in very good shape and doesn't want to take a lesson to learn to ski powder. I still think of him as the person who taught me how to ski and as the skier I looked up to while growing up. To his credit, he will follow me down just about anything...at least until his body just wants to call it quits. While I try to avoid skiing the terrain (when I'm with him) that I really would like to ski, I inevitably take him to some spots that he really shouldn't be trying. After all, there's not a lot of easy stuff at Alta. So I really feel that at times I am putting him in danger.

Of course, I could just ditch him. God nows, I've done that enough in the past. Maybe if it was truly epic powder I would do that. But as I get older, I am coming to value my family more. He came all the way from China to come ski with me. So I would be a terrible person not to spend as much of this time with him as possible. I only see him 1-2x per year. So when he's around, I actually want to spend it with him and can't bring myself to ditch him each day.

So as much as I love Alta, I'm not sure that I can see myself coming back here with him again. Not only is the terrain no longer suited for his abilities, but I do not want to be teased with all the amazing snow/terrain that I am passing up as I ski down another intermediate run. I definitely want to keep taking ski trips with him...its just might have to be to one of those more intermediate friendly mountains that I've always looked down upon.